Are Mortgage Rates Going Down? March 2026 Update After Fed Decision and Global Market Volatility

I have been watching mortgage rates closely for the past few weeks. Like many of you, I have been waiting for a clear signal about where they are headed. The Fed just met. The Supreme Court struck down some tariffs. And global tensions are heating up.

So what does all this mean for your mortgage? I dug into the data, talked to what the experts are saying, and pulled together what you actually need to know right now. Here is the honest truth about where rates stand and whether they are finally going to drop.

Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now?

Let me start with the numbers. As of mid-March 2026, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is hovering around 6.35 percent . That is up slightly from where we were a few weeks ago.

If you remember, rates dipped below 6 percent in late February. They touched 5.98 percent, which was the lowest we had seen since 2022 . That felt like a turning point. People got excited. Refinance applications jumped 132 percent year over year.

But that momentum did not hold. Rates have climbed for three weeks in a row. The 15-year fixed rate is now at 5.67 percent. Adjustable-rate mortgages are around 5.65 percent.

So if you are asking are mortgage rates going down, the short answer is no. Not right this moment. But the longer answer is more complicated. And it matters for anyone thinking about buying or refinancing.

The Fed Just Met. Here Is What Happened?

The Federal Reserve held its meeting on March 17 and 18. They did exactly what everyone expected. They kept the federal funds rate unchanged. That rate is currently sitting between 3.5 and 3.75 percent.

The Fed made three cuts in late 2025, but they have paused since January. And at this meeting, they signaled they are not in a hurry to cut again.

Here is something I learned while tracking this. The Fed does not directly control mortgage rates. I used to think they did. But mortgage rates actually follow the bond market, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield.

When the 10-year Treasury yield goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow. Right now, that yield is around 4.27 percent, up from 4.13 percent a week ago . That is part of why mortgage rates have been creeping higher.

What matters more than the Fed's rate decision is what Jerome Powell said afterward. He made it clear the central bank needs more time to see how global conflicts and tariffs will affect inflation before making any moves.

The Fed's own projections show they expect only one quarter-point cut for all of 2026. That is less than what many people hoped for.

What Is Actually Pushing Rates Higher?

If the Fed is not raising rates, why are mortgages getting more expensive? I asked this same question. The answer comes down to three things.

First, the Middle East conflict. The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February. That conflict is still ongoing. Oil prices have jumped as a result, climbing from $56 a barrel in January to around $89 now . When oil prices rise, inflation fears rise. Bond yields rise. And mortgage rates rise with them.

One loan expert I came across put it plainly. A 5 percent rise in oil prices can lead to a 0.1 percent rise in inflation. And inflation is the enemy of lower mortgage rates.

Second, the bond market is reacting to uncertainty. Investors do not like uncertainty. When they get nervous, they sell bonds. Yields go up. Mortgage rates go up. As long as military operations continue, markets will be driven more by geopolitics than by economic data .

Third, inflation is still sticky. The latest Consumer Price Index numbers show inflation running at 2.4 percent annually . That is down from previous months, and it is the slowest pace since May 2025. But it is still above the Fed's 2 percent target. Until inflation cools further, the Fed will be cautious about cutting rates.

The Tariff Situation Changed. That Matters

There was a big development in February that might shape where rates go later this year. The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs that had been imposed under emergency powers.

The Court ruled 6 to 3 that the president cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That authority belongs to Congress.

This matters for mortgage rates because tariffs are inflationary. They raise prices on imported goods. They push up costs for businesses. And they keep inflation higher for longer. Removing a large chunk of those tariffs removes some of that upward pressure on prices.

The bond market reacted immediately. Canadian 10-year yields dropped to their lowest level in 12 weeks. U.S. Treasury yields also moved lower.

Now, the White House quickly put replacement tariffs in place under a different legal authority. Those are set at 10 percent and expire in 150 days . So the tariff story is not completely over. But the worst-case scenario, with blanket tariffs of 25 to 35 percent, has been taken off the table.

What does this mean for you? It means one source of inflation pressure is weakening. That opens the door for rates to drift lower in the second half of 2026.

What Experts Are Saying About the Rest of 2026?

I read through forecasts from several housing economists and market analysts. Here is what they are telling us. Most experts do not expect rates to fall much further in the immediate future. Fannie Mae predicts rates will hover around 6 percent for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

Bankrate projects the average rate for 2026 will be around 6.1 percent. They say rates could drop as low as 5.7 percent, but could also rise to 6.5 percent depending on how things play out.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows there is only about a 2.7 percent chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting in April. The odds improve later in the year. By September or October, markets are pricing in better than a 50 percent chance of a cut.

One financial analyst put it this way. There is downward momentum in mortgage rates, but a catalyst for a significant step lower has not yet materialized. Without direct intervention from the Fed, rates are more likely to drift gradually lower as inflation risks and economic uncertainty ease.

Should You Wait for Rates to Drop Further?

This is the question I get asked most. And the honest answer is that it depends on your situation.

If you are buying a home and you find one you love at a price you can afford, waiting for rates to drop by half a percent might not be worth it. You could lose out on the house you want. And there is no guarantee rates will go significantly lower.

If you are refinancing, the math is different. You need to run the numbers. A rule of thumb is that refinancing makes sense if you can lower your rate by at least 0.5 to 0.75 percent and plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the closing costs.

Here is something I learned from talking to loan officers. Shopping around matters more than timing the market. Different lenders have different rates at any given time.

Comparing offers from at least three lenders can save you thousands of dollars. Also, locking your rate when the market drops can save you a sizable chunk of money. But ask your lender about the timeframe and cost associated with a rate lock before you commit.